Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence
Two quarterbacks fantasy managers weigh against each other for 2026. Here is the head-to-head on projections, expert consensus, ADP and usage, with our Clutch Score verdict on who to draft.
Who to draft
Strong edge · 95% confident
Trevor Lawrence- Higher projection: 303 vs 287 pts
- Experts agree: consensus rank 70 vs 101
- More opportunity: 98% snap share, 23 red-zone touches
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are a common 2026 draft-day decision at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence holds the edge in expert consensus (QB9 to QB14). Trevor Lawrence typically comes off the board first, around pick 103 (round 9) to Patrick Mahomes's pick 110. The 2026 projections give a modest edge: Trevor Lawrence at 303 PPR points (17.8 per game) versus Patrick Mahomes at 287.
Last season Trevor Lawrence carried the heavier workload (98% snap share, 82 touches to Patrick Mahomes's 65), and opportunity is the most stable predictor of fantasy value. Trevor Lawrence is the younger option (age 26), which tilts the long-term and dynasty edge. For a 2026 redraft, Trevor Lawrence is the clear pick on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Head-to-head
| Stat | Mahomes | Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 287 | 303 |
| Points / game | 21.2 | 20.6 |
| Games played | 14 | 17 |
| Expert rank (ECR) | #101 | #70 |
| ADP | 110 | 103 |
| Positional rank | QB11 | QB4 |
| Snap share | 97% | 98% |
| Red-zone touches | 14 | 23 |
| Age | 30 | 26 |
| Bye week | 5 | 7 |
Highlighted value wins each row. Season stats are 2025 (PPR); projections, ADP and consensus are for 2026.
Setting a lineup this week? Start/sit: Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence.
Frequently asked
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence in 2026?
Trevor Lawrence is a clear call over Patrick Mahomes for 2026, on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Who is projected to score more, Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Trevor Lawrence carries the higher 2026 projection at 303 PPR points (17.8 per game), compared with 287 for Patrick Mahomes.
Where are Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence being drafted?
Trevor Lawrence has an ADP around pick 103 (round 9), while Patrick Mahomes goes closer to pick 110 (round 10).
Who is ranked higher, Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Expert consensus ranks Trevor Lawrence (QB9) ahead of Patrick Mahomes (QB14) for 2026.
More comparisons
Verdict blends projections, usage, positional rank, consensus and health. Data via the Sleeper API and FantasyPros consensus, refreshed daily.