Matthew Stafford vs Patrick Mahomes
Two quarterbacks fantasy managers weigh against each other for 2026. Here is the head-to-head on projections, expert consensus, ADP and usage, with our Clutch Score verdict on who to draft.
Who to draft
Strong edge · 95% confident
Patrick Mahomes- Higher projection: 287 vs 280 pts
- Experts agree: consensus rank 101 vs 104
- More points per game: 21.2 vs 21.1
Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes are a common 2026 draft-day decision at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes holds the edge in expert consensus (QB14 to QB16). Matthew Stafford typically comes off the board first, around pick 94 (round 8) to Patrick Mahomes's pick 110. The 2026 projections are nearly even: Patrick Mahomes at 287 PPR points (16.9 per game) versus Matthew Stafford at 280.
Last season Patrick Mahomes carried the heavier workload (97% snap share, 65 touches to Matthew Stafford's 29), and opportunity is the most stable predictor of fantasy value. Patrick Mahomes is the younger option (age 30), which tilts the long-term and dynasty edge. For a 2026 redraft, Patrick Mahomes is the clear pick on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and the bigger workload.
Head-to-head
| Stat | Stafford | Mahomes |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 280 | 287 |
| Points / game | 21.1 | 21.2 |
| Games played | 17 | 14 |
| Expert rank (ECR) | #104 | #101 |
| ADP | 94 | 110 |
| Positional rank | QB3 | QB11 |
| Snap share | 99% | 97% |
| Red-zone touches | 7 | 14 |
| Age | 38 | 30 |
| Bye week | 11 | 5 |
Highlighted value wins each row. Season stats are 2025 (PPR); projections, ADP and consensus are for 2026.
Setting a lineup this week? Start/sit: Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes.
Frequently asked
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes in 2026?
Patrick Mahomes is a clear call over Matthew Stafford for 2026, on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and the bigger workload.
Who is projected to score more, Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes carries the higher 2026 projection at 287 PPR points (16.9 per game), compared with 280 for Matthew Stafford.
Where are Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes being drafted?
Matthew Stafford has an ADP around pick 94 (round 8), while Patrick Mahomes goes closer to pick 110 (round 10).
Who is ranked higher, Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes?
Expert consensus ranks Patrick Mahomes (QB14) ahead of Matthew Stafford (QB16) for 2026.
More comparisons
Verdict blends projections, usage, positional rank, consensus and health. Data via the Sleeper API and FantasyPros consensus, refreshed daily.