Patrick Mahomes vs Sam Darnold
Two quarterbacks fantasy managers weigh against each other for 2026. Here is the head-to-head on projections, expert consensus, ADP and usage, with our Clutch Score verdict on who to draft.
Who to draft
Strong edge · 95% confident
Patrick Mahomes- Higher projection: 287 vs 263 pts
- Experts agree: consensus rank 101 vs 137
- More points per game: 21.2 vs 14.7
Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold are a common 2026 draft-day decision at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes holds the edge in expert consensus (QB14 to QB22). Patrick Mahomes typically comes off the board first, around pick 110 (round 10) to Sam Darnold's pick 163. The 2026 projections give a modest edge: Patrick Mahomes at 287 PPR points (16.9 per game) versus Sam Darnold at 263.
Last season Patrick Mahomes carried the heavier workload (97% snap share, 65 touches to Sam Darnold's 35), and opportunity is the most stable predictor of fantasy value. For a 2026 redraft, Patrick Mahomes is the clear pick on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Head-to-head
| Stat | Mahomes | Darnold |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 287 | 263 |
| Points / game | 21.2 | 14.7 |
| Games played | 14 | 17 |
| Expert rank (ECR) | #101 | #137 |
| ADP | 110 | 163 |
| Positional rank | QB11 | QB13 |
| Snap share | 97% | 96% |
| Red-zone touches | 14 | 6 |
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Bye week | 5 | 11 |
Highlighted value wins each row. Season stats are 2025 (PPR); projections, ADP and consensus are for 2026.
Setting a lineup this week? Start/sit: Patrick Mahomes or Sam Darnold.
Frequently asked
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Sam Darnold in 2026?
Patrick Mahomes is a clear call over Sam Darnold for 2026, on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Who is projected to score more, Patrick Mahomes or Sam Darnold?
Patrick Mahomes carries the higher 2026 projection at 287 PPR points (16.9 per game), compared with 263 for Sam Darnold.
Where are Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold being drafted?
Patrick Mahomes has an ADP around pick 110 (round 10), while Sam Darnold goes closer to pick 163 (round 14).
Who is ranked higher, Patrick Mahomes or Sam Darnold?
Expert consensus ranks Patrick Mahomes (QB14) ahead of Sam Darnold (QB22) for 2026.
More comparisons
Verdict blends projections, usage, positional rank, consensus and health. Data via the Sleeper API and FantasyPros consensus, refreshed daily.