Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes
Two quarterbacks fantasy managers weigh against each other for 2026. Here is the head-to-head on projections, expert consensus, ADP and usage, with our Clutch Score verdict on who to draft.
Who to draft
Strong edge · 95% confident
Justin Herbert- Higher projection: 296 vs 287 pts
- Experts agree: consensus rank 69 vs 101
- More opportunity: 97% snap share, 12 red-zone touches
Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes are a common 2026 draft-day decision at quarterback. Justin Herbert holds the edge in expert consensus (QB8 to QB14). Justin Herbert typically comes off the board first, around pick 83 (round 7) to Patrick Mahomes's pick 110. The 2026 projections are nearly even: Justin Herbert at 296 PPR points (17.4 per game) versus Patrick Mahomes at 287.
Last season Justin Herbert carried the heavier workload (97% snap share, 83 touches to Patrick Mahomes's 65), and opportunity is the most stable predictor of fantasy value. For a 2026 redraft, Justin Herbert is the clear pick on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Head-to-head
| Stat | Herbert | Mahomes |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 296 | 287 |
| Points / game | 18.7 | 21.2 |
| Games played | 16 | 14 |
| Expert rank (ECR) | #69 | #101 |
| ADP | 83 | 110 |
| Positional rank | QB10 | QB11 |
| Snap share | 97% | 97% |
| Red-zone touches | 12 | 14 |
| Age | 28 | 30 |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 |
Highlighted value wins each row. Season stats are 2025 (PPR); projections, ADP and consensus are for 2026.
Setting a lineup this week? Start/sit: Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes.
Frequently asked
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in 2026?
Justin Herbert is a clear call over Patrick Mahomes for 2026, on the higher projection, stronger expert consensus and an earlier ADP.
Who is projected to score more, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes?
Justin Herbert carries the higher 2026 projection at 296 PPR points (17.4 per game), compared with 287 for Patrick Mahomes.
Where are Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes being drafted?
Justin Herbert has an ADP around pick 83 (round 7), while Patrick Mahomes goes closer to pick 110 (round 10).
Who is ranked higher, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes?
Expert consensus ranks Justin Herbert (QB8) ahead of Patrick Mahomes (QB14) for 2026.
More comparisons
Verdict blends projections, usage, positional rank, consensus and health. Data via the Sleeper API and FantasyPros consensus, refreshed daily.