Week 7 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 3 to 6 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by Michael Wilson. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Week 7 and the trade offers keep coming. Somebody in your league is looking at Michael Wilson's 56.9 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure George Kittle's 4 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 3 to 6, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 3 to 6 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 34% of the time; a back's carry there, 20%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a four-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
Michael Wilson leads the list. 44 of 165 targets (27%), 10 red-zone looks, and on the field for 91% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 82.6 points. He has 56.9. Most of the gap is touchdowns, and touchdowns are the part that evens out.
8 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 3 to 6. 2 of the top 8 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
Michael WilsonWRARITouchdowns owed
56.9 PPR points on 82.6 expected · 1 TD on 3.4 expected
44 of 165 targets (27%) · 10 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Tony PollardRBTENTouchdowns owed
39.4 PPR points on 56.7 expected · 1 TD on 2.8 expected
10 of 120 targets (8%) · 66 of 88 carries (75%) · 14 red-zone looks · 56% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Josh DownsWRINDTouchdowns owed
33.7 PPR points on 49.6 expected · 0 TD on 1.4 expected
29 of 145 targets (20%) · 1 of 115 carries (1%) · 4 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 10
KC ConcepcionWRCLEYards owed
23.7 PPR points on 39.0 expected · 0 TD on 0.7 expected
24 of 120 targets (20%) · 2 of 110 carries (2%) · 2 red-zone looks · 69% of snaps · drafted Rd 10
Trey McBrideTEARITouchdowns owed
60.5 PPR points on 75.4 expected · 1 TD on 2.8 expected
42 of 165 targets (25%) · 7 red-zone looks · 94% of snaps · drafted Rd 3
Emeka EgbukaWRTBOYards owed
49.5 PPR points on 64.4 expected · 2 TD on 1.7 expected
38 of 127 targets (30%) · 1 of 116 carries (1%) · 5 red-zone looks · 85% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Tucker KraftTEGBTouchdowns owed
43.4 PPR points on 56.2 expected · 1 TD on 2.8 expected
28 of 152 targets (18%) · 2 of 86 carries (2%) · 7 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Mark AndrewsTEBALYards owed
25.3 PPR points on 37.5 expected · 1 TD on 1.6 expected
20 of 111 targets (18%) · 4 red-zone looks · 64% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
QB Lamar Jackson is listed Out
One thing the math can't see: one of these players may be catching passes from a backup soon. Mark Andrews's quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is listed Out. The targets were earned with the starter under center. Some of that share usually survives a backup, but the value of each target won't, so knock these down a tier until the quarterback picture clears up.
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Jaylen Warren is the clearest sell. 82.8 points on a workload worth 57.7: 63 of 86 carries (73%), 20 of 144 targets (14%) and 2 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 1.0. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last four, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last four.
3 of the 6 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Jaylen WarrenRBPITHot per touch
82.8 PPR points on 57.7 expected · 2 TD on 1.0 expected
20 of 144 targets (14%) · 63 of 86 carries (73%) · 5 red-zone looks · 87% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Christian WatsonWRGBHot per touch
72.0 PPR points on 49.1 expected · 3 TD on 1.4 expected
29 of 152 targets (19%) · 4 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
George KittleTESFTouchdown-fueled
68.5 PPR points on 52.1 expected · 4 TD on 2.4 expected
27 of 111 targets (24%) · 6 red-zone looks · 89% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Tetairoa McMillanWRCARHot per touch
63.5 PPR points on 48.4 expected · 2 TD on 1.0 expected
30 of 116 targets (26%) · 3 red-zone looks · 87% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Chuba HubbardRBCARTouchdown-fueled
60.0 PPR points on 46.1 expected · 3 TD on 1.4 expected
8 of 116 targets (7%) · 67 of 84 carries (80%) · 7 red-zone looks · 87% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Garrett WilsonWRNYJTouchdown-fueled
64.2 PPR points on 52.0 expected · 2 TD on 0.7 expected
34 of 109 targets (31%) · 2 red-zone looks · 96% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Drake London, Javonte Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson. All 7 went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and four games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Four games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 6 usage risers · The live waiver board
Put this to work on your Yahoo team
Connect your Yahoo Fantasy league and we’ll score your real roster with the Clutch Score, set this week’s optimal lineup and show the start/sit moves to get there. Read-only access, and you can disconnect at any time.
Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 3 to 6 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.