Week 5 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 1 to 4 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by Michael Wilson. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Week 5 and the trade offers keep coming. Somebody in your league is looking at Michael Wilson's 56.8 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure Chuba Hubbard's 5 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 1 to 4, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 1 to 4 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 42% of the time; a back's carry there, 20%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a four-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
Michael Wilson leads the list. 44 of 148 targets (30%), 9 red-zone looks, and on the field for 91% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 87.0 points. He has 56.8. Most of the gap is touchdowns, and touchdowns are the part that evens out.
11 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 1 to 4. 4 of the top 8 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
Michael WilsonWRARITouchdowns owed
56.8 PPR points on 87.0 expected · 1 TD on 3.8 expected
44 of 148 targets (30%) · 9 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Courtland SuttonWRDENYards owed
17.6 PPR points on 42.2 expected · 0 TD on 1.7 expected
22 of 125 targets (18%) · 4 red-zone looks · 78% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Trey McBrideTEARITouchdowns owed
69.2 PPR points on 90.2 expected · 2 TD on 4.1 expected
46 of 148 targets (31%) · 9 red-zone looks · 89% of snaps · drafted Rd 3
Colston LovelandTECHITouchdowns owed
20.1 PPR points on 39.3 expected · 0 TD on 2.3 expected
18 of 121 targets (15%) · 5 red-zone looks · 87% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
KC ConcepcionWRCLEYards owed
30.3 PPR points on 48.1 expected · 0 TD on 0.8 expected
28 of 115 targets (24%) · 4 of 102 carries (4%) · 2 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Tony PollardRBTENTouchdowns owed
38.5 PPR points on 55.7 expected · 1 TD on 3.1 expected
11 of 108 targets (10%) · 54 of 90 carries (60%) · 16 red-zone looks · 53% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Ashton JeantyRBLVQTouchdowns owed
73.9 PPR points on 88.8 expected · 2 TD on 4.1 expected
24 of 136 targets (18%) · 78 of 119 carries (66%) · 21 red-zone looks · 76% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
Josh DownsWRINDTouchdowns owed
37.2 PPR points on 51.0 expected · 0 TD on 1.7 expected
28 of 123 targets (23%) · 4 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 10
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Chuba Hubbard is the clearest sell. 79.0 points on a workload worth 50.4: 61 of 95 carries (64%), 11 of 147 targets (7%) and 5 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 1.8. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last four, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last four.
4 of the 8 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Chuba HubbardRBCARTouchdown-fueled
79.0 PPR points on 50.4 expected · 5 TD on 1.8 expected
11 of 147 targets (7%) · 61 of 95 carries (64%) · 9 red-zone looks · 77% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
George KittleTESFTouchdown-fueled
64.4 PPR points on 42.3 expected · 4 TD on 1.8 expected
22 of 110 targets (20%) · 4 red-zone looks · 68% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Deebo SamuelWRSFHot per touch
57.9 PPR points on 41.0 expected · 3 TD on 2.1 expected
17 of 110 targets (15%) · 7 of 115 carries (6%) · 5 red-zone looks · 60% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Dalton KincaidTEBUFHot per touch
46.0 PPR points on 29.9 expected · 1 TD on 0.5 expected
19 of 112 targets (17%) · 1 red-zone look · 66% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Travis KelceTEKCHot per touch
52.6 PPR points on 36.9 expected · 2 TD on 0.9 expected
22 of 118 targets (19%) · 2 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Denzel BostonWRCLEHot per touch
55.4 PPR points on 39.7 expected · 2 TD on 1.3 expected
22 of 115 targets (19%) · 3 red-zone looks · 92% of snaps · drafted Rd 15
Garrett WilsonWRNYJTouchdown-fueled
63.0 PPR points on 47.9 expected · 2 TD on 0.4 expected
31 of 110 targets (28%) · 1 red-zone look · 87% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Christian WatsonWRGBTouchdown-fueled
77.1 PPR points on 64.4 expected · 4 TD on 2.9 expected
32 of 150 targets (21%) · 7 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, Drake London, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor. All 9 went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and four games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Four games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 4 usage risers · The live waiver board
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Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 1 to 4 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.