Week 4 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 1 to 3 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by Michael Wilson. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Three weeks in is when the trade offers start. Somebody in your league is looking at Michael Wilson's 40.3 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure Chuba Hubbard's 3 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 1 to 3, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 1 to 3 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 42% of the time; a back's carry there, 17%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a three-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
Michael Wilson leads the list. 31 of 113 targets (27%), 5 red-zone looks, and on the field for 91% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 57.5 points. He has 40.3. Most of the gap is catches and yards that didn't come, which is the part a player controls most, so check the tape before you pay full price.
19 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 1 to 3. 5 of the top 8 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
Michael WilsonWRARIYards owed
40.3 PPR points on 57.5 expected · 1 TD on 2.1 expected
31 of 113 targets (27%) · 5 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Courtland SuttonWRDENTouchdowns owed
16.2 PPR points on 33.2 expected · 0 TD on 1.7 expected
16 of 87 targets (18%) · 4 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Tetairoa McMillanWRCARTouchdowns owed
29.3 PPR points on 45.9 expected · 0 TD on 2.1 expected
23 of 108 targets (21%) · 5 red-zone looks · 86% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
KC ConcepcionWRCLEYards owed
18.9 PPR points on 33.5 expected · 0 TD on 0.4 expected
20 of 82 targets (24%) · 4 of 75 carries (5%) · 1 red-zone look · 74% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Khalil ShakirWRBUFTouchdowns owed
17.4 PPR points on 31.8 expected · 0 TD on 1.7 expected
15 of 82 targets (18%) · 4 red-zone looks · 58% of snaps · drafted Rd 13
Luther BurdenWRCHITouchdowns owed
35.5 PPR points on 49.4 expected · 1 TD on 2.5 expected
23 of 90 targets (26%) · 2 of 105 carries (2%) · 6 red-zone looks · 64% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Trey McBrideTEARITouchdowns owed
59.1 PPR points on 72.9 expected · 2 TD on 3.9 expected
34 of 113 targets (30%) · 8 red-zone looks · 86% of snaps · drafted Rd 3
Malik NabersWRNYGTouchdowns owed
21.6 PPR points on 35.1 expected · 0 TD on 1.3 expected
19 of 82 targets (23%) · 3 red-zone looks · 68% of snaps · drafted Rd 3
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Davante Adams is the clearest sell. 65.8 points on a workload worth 47.1: 29 of 106 targets (27%) and 2 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 0.8. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last three, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last three.
3 of the 8 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Davante AdamsWRLARHot per touch
65.8 PPR points on 47.1 expected · 2 TD on 0.8 expected
29 of 106 targets (27%) · 2 red-zone looks · 69% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Travis KelceTEKCHot per touch
49.1 PPR points on 32.1 expected · 2 TD on 1.0 expected
18 of 91 targets (20%) · 2 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Chuba HubbardRBCARTouchdown-fueled
53.1 PPR points on 36.4 expected · 3 TD on 1.2 expected
9 of 108 targets (8%) · 41 of 67 carries (61%) · 7 red-zone looks · 74% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Dalton KincaidTEBUFHot per touch
44.3 PPR points on 27.7 expected · 1 TD on 0.5 expected
17 of 82 targets (21%) · 1 red-zone look · 68% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Garrett WilsonWRNYJTouchdown-fueled
57.3 PPR points on 41.7 expected · 2 TD on 0.4 expected
27 of 95 targets (28%) · 1 red-zone look · 86% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Deebo SamuelWRSFHot per touch
39.9 PPR points on 25.5 expected · 2 TD on 1.3 expected
11 of 81 targets (14%) · 4 of 80 carries (5%) · 3 red-zone looks · 58% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Jakobi MeyersWRJAXTouchdown-fueled
35.4 PPR points on 21.5 expected · 2 TD on 0.8 expected
11 of 76 targets (14%) · 1 of 86 carries (1%) · 2 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Denzel BostonWRCLEHot per touch
42.5 PPR points on 29.3 expected · 2 TD on 1.3 expected
15 of 82 targets (18%) · 3 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 15
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave, Ladd McConkey. All 11 went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and three games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Three games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 3 usage risers · The live waiver board
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Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 1 to 3 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.