Week 9 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 5 to 8 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by CeeDee Lamb. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Week 9 and the trade offers keep coming. Somebody in your league is looking at CeeDee Lamb's 56.1 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure Jameson Williams's 5 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 5 to 8, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 5 to 8 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 32% of the time; a back's carry there, 20%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a four-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
CeeDee Lamb leads the list. 46 of 150 targets (31%), 10 red-zone looks, and on the field for 76% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 83.3 points. He has 56.1. Most of the gap is catches and yards that didn't come, which is the part a player controls most, so check the tape before you pay full price.
9 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 5 to 8. 3 of the top 8 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
CeeDee LambWRDALYards owed
56.1 PPR points on 83.3 expected · 2 TD on 3.2 expected
46 of 150 targets (31%) · 10 red-zone looks · 76% of snaps · drafted Rd 1
Denzel BostonWRCLEYards owed
31.5 PPR points on 52.8 expected · 1 TD on 1.6 expected
31 of 132 targets (23%) · 5 red-zone looks · 89% of snaps · drafted Rd 15
Mark AndrewsTEBALTouchdowns owed
15.9 PPR points on 34.2 expected · 0 TD on 1.6 expected
17 of 122 targets (14%) · 4 red-zone looks · 65% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
QB Lamar Jackson is listed Out
Michael WilsonWRARIQTouchdowns owed
51.9 PPR points on 68.7 expected · 1 TD on 2.6 expected
37 of 165 targets (22%) · 3 of 104 carries (3%) · 8 red-zone looks · 86% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Chase BrownRBCINTouchdowns owed
32.9 PPR points on 48.5 expected · 0 TD on 1.4 expected
18 of 106 targets (17%) · 36 of 70 carries (51%) · 7 red-zone looks · 68% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
DK MetcalfWRPITYards owed
34.6 PPR points on 49.5 expected · 0 TD on 1.0 expected
31 of 124 targets (25%) · 1 of 107 carries (1%) · 3 red-zone looks · 93% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Derrick HenryRBBALTouchdowns owed
45.9 PPR points on 60.8 expected · 2 TD on 3.7 expected
7 of 122 targets (6%) · 69 of 104 carries (66%) · 18 red-zone looks · 53% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
QB Lamar Jackson is listed Out
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENYards owed
36.9 PPR points on 49.2 expected · 1 TD on 1.9 expected
27 of 126 targets (21%) · 6 red-zone looks · 74% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
One thing the math can't see: 2 of these players may be catching passes from a backup soon. Mark Andrews's quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is listed Out; Derrick Henry's quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is listed Out. The targets were earned with the starter under center. Some of that share usually survives a backup, but the value of each target won't, so knock these down a tier until the quarterback picture clears up.
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Tee Higgins is the clearest sell. 68.5 points on a workload worth 36.4: 22 of 106 targets (21%) and 3 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 1.0. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last four, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last four.
5 of the 8 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Tee HigginsWRCINHot per touch
68.5 PPR points on 36.4 expected · 3 TD on 1.0 expected
22 of 106 targets (21%) · 3 red-zone looks · 81% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Jaylen WarrenRBPITHot per touch
84.6 PPR points on 57.5 expected · 3 TD on 1.4 expected
16 of 124 targets (13%) · 64 of 107 carries (60%) · 7 red-zone looks · 71% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Jameson WilliamsWRDETTouchdown-fueled
61.8 PPR points on 38.0 expected · 5 TD on 1.9 expected
19 of 85 targets (22%) · 6 red-zone looks · 85% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Christian WatsonWRGBQTouchdown-fueled
69.7 PPR points on 47.3 expected · 2 TD on 0.0 expected
34 of 152 targets (22%) · 0 red-zone looks · 75% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Bhayshul TutenRBJAXQTouchdown-fueled
66.2 PPR points on 46.9 expected · 4 TD on 2.3 expected
9 of 96 targets (9%) · 50 of 87 carries (57%) · 11 red-zone looks · 59% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Blake CorumRBLARTouchdown-fueled
60.6 PPR points on 42.2 expected · 4 TD on 2.3 expected
8 of 140 targets (6%) · 42 of 108 carries (39%) · 11 red-zone looks · 33% of snaps · drafted Rd 9
Tony PollardRBTENTouchdown-fueled
78.0 PPR points on 62.9 expected · 5 TD on 2.7 expected
10 of 126 targets (8%) · 79 of 99 carries (80%) · 13 red-zone looks · 70% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Luther Burden IIIWRCHIHot per touch
68.7 PPR points on 54.0 expected · 2 TD on 2.3 expected
27 of 137 targets (20%) · 5 of 122 carries (4%) · 7 red-zone looks · 58% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase. Both went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and four games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Four games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 8 usage risers · The live waiver board
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Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 5 to 8 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.