Week 8 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 4 to 7 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by Michael Wilson. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Week 8 and the trade offers keep coming. Somebody in your league is looking at Michael Wilson's 41.6 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure Christian Watson's 2 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 4 to 7, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 4 to 7 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 33% of the time; a back's carry there, 22%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a four-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
Michael Wilson leads the list. 35 of 159 targets (22%) and 2 of 103 carries (2%), 8 red-zone looks, and on the field for 90% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 66.2 points. He has 41.6. Most of the gap is touchdowns, and touchdowns are the part that evens out.
6 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 4 to 7. 2 of the top 6 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
Michael WilsonWRARITouchdowns owed
41.6 PPR points on 66.2 expected · 0 TD on 2.6 expected
35 of 159 targets (22%) · 2 of 103 carries (2%) · 8 red-zone looks · 90% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Derrick HenryRBBALTouchdowns owed
47.8 PPR points on 65.9 expected · 2 TD on 3.8 expected
7 of 125 targets (6%) · 81 of 115 carries (70%) · 17 red-zone looks · 56% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
QB Lamar Jackson is listed Out
Chase BrownRBCINTouchdowns owed
35.9 PPR points on 51.4 expected · 0 TD on 1.8 expected
20 of 112 targets (18%) · 33 of 66 carries (50%) · 8 red-zone looks · 72% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
CeeDee LambWRDALYards owed
84.6 PPR points on 99.3 expected · 3 TD on 3.3 expected
56 of 165 targets (34%) · 1 of 91 carries (1%) · 10 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 1
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENYards owed
32.2 PPR points on 45.7 expected · 1 TD on 1.6 expected
25 of 115 targets (22%) · 1 of 97 carries (1%) · 5 red-zone looks · 66% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
Aaron Jones Sr.RBMINQTouchdowns owed
39.1 PPR points on 51.6 expected · 1 TD on 2.2 expected
12 of 86 targets (14%) · 53 of 96 carries (55%) · 10 red-zone looks · 64% of snaps · drafted Rd 11
One thing the math can't see: one of these players may be catching passes from a backup soon. Derrick Henry's quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is listed Out. The targets were earned with the starter under center. Some of that share usually survives a backup, but the value of each target won't, so knock these down a tier until the quarterback picture clears up.
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Christian Watson is the clearest sell. 60.1 points on a workload worth 40.1: 27 of 143 targets (19%) and 2 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 0.3. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last four, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last four.
3 of the 8 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Christian WatsonWRGBTouchdown-fueled
60.1 PPR points on 40.1 expected · 2 TD on 0.3 expected
27 of 143 targets (19%) · 1 red-zone look · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Tetairoa McMillanWRCARHot per touch
67.8 PPR points on 47.8 expected · 2 TD on 0.7 expected
31 of 103 targets (30%) · 2 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Jaylen WarrenRBPITHot per touch
78.9 PPR points on 59.0 expected · 2 TD on 0.9 expected
20 of 141 targets (14%) · 64 of 93 carries (69%) · 4 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Jameson WilliamsWRDETTouchdown-fueled
61.0 PPR points on 41.5 expected · 4 TD on 2.0 expected
21 of 111 targets (19%) · 6 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLTouchdown-fueled
59.1 PPR points on 43.4 expected · 4 TD on 2.3 expected
21 of 119 targets (18%) · 6 red-zone looks · 62% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Tee HigginsWRCINHot per touch
57.7 PPR points on 42.1 expected · 1 TD on 0.7 expected
27 of 112 targets (24%) · 2 red-zone looks · 78% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Luther Burden IIIWRCHIHot per touch
61.5 PPR points on 46.8 expected · 1 TD on 1.6 expected
24 of 134 targets (18%) · 6 of 141 carries (4%) · 5 red-zone looks · 57% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Rhamondre StevensonRBNEHot per touch
62.0 PPR points on 47.4 expected · 3 TD on 1.8 expected
13 of 127 targets (10%) · 46 of 119 carries (39%) · 8 red-zone looks · 66% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Malik Nabers, Kenneth Walker III, George Pickens, Javonte Williams, Nico Collins. All 6 went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and four games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Four games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 7 usage risers · The live waiver board
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Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 4 to 7 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.