Week 6 Buy Low, Sell High: Where Usage and Points Disagree
We priced every target, carry and red-zone look from Weeks 2 to 5 at what it was worth leaguewide, then found the rostered players scoring furthest from their workload, led by Michael Wilson. Who is owed points, and who is living on borrowed ones.
Week 6 and the trade offers keep coming. Somebody in your league is looking at Michael Wilson's 53.5 points and wondering whether to cut bait. Somebody else is sure George Kittle's 4 touchdowns are who he is now. Both of them are reading the least reliable number a week produces.
Here's a better one. We took every target, carry and red-zone opportunity from Weeks 2 to 5, priced each at what that kind of touch was actually worth across the league at that position, and added it up. That's what an average player would have scored with the same workload. Then we lined it up against what each player really scored. Where the two disagree by a lot, bet on the workload. Offenses keep feeding the players they're feeding. They don't keep throwing 60-yard touchdowns to the same guy.
What one opportunity was worth, Weeks 2 to 5 (PPR points)
The red-zone numbers are why touchdowns fool people. A receiver's look inside the 20 turned into a score 38% of the time; a back's carry there, 19%. A few of those bouncing one way or the other swings a four-week total by 10 points or more.
Buy low: the workload is there, the points aren't yet
Michael Wilson leads the list. 44 of 157 targets (28%), 9 red-zone looks, and on the field for 91% of snaps. An average wide receiver turns that into 84.3 points. He has 53.5. Most of the gap is catches and yards that didn't come, which is the part a player controls most, so check the tape before you pay full price.
10 rostered players are at least 3 points a game behind their workload over Weeks 2 to 5. 2 of the top 8 haven't scored a touchdown yet. That's the buying window: a manager looking at the box score sees a bust, and you're looking at a role.
Michael WilsonWRARIYards owed
53.5 PPR points on 84.3 expected · 1 TD on 3.5 expected
44 of 157 targets (28%) · 9 red-zone looks · 91% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Ashton JeantyRBLVTouchdowns owed
51.9 PPR points on 74.5 expected · 0 TD on 2.8 expected
24 of 143 targets (17%) · 65 of 100 carries (65%) · 15 red-zone looks · 71% of snaps · drafted Rd 2
Luther BurdenWRCHITouchdowns owed
46.3 PPR points on 67.3 expected · 1 TD on 3.5 expected
30 of 135 targets (22%) · 6 of 144 carries (4%) · 9 red-zone looks · 62% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Tony PollardRBTENTouchdowns owed
39.3 PPR points on 56.8 expected · 1 TD on 3.2 expected
10 of 115 targets (9%) · 61 of 94 carries (65%) · 17 red-zone looks · 52% of snaps · drafted Rd 8
Colston LovelandTECHITouchdowns owed
24.0 PPR points on 40.9 expected · 0 TD on 1.9 expected
21 of 135 targets (16%) · 4 red-zone looks · 85% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETTouchdowns owed
75.5 PPR points on 89.8 expected · 3 TD on 4.6 expected
43 of 149 targets (29%) · 12 red-zone looks · 88% of snaps · drafted Rd 1
Trey McBrideTEARITouchdowns owed
66.3 PPR points on 80.4 expected · 2 TD on 3.2 expected
43 of 157 targets (27%) · 7 red-zone looks · 92% of snaps · drafted Rd 3
Courtland SuttonWRDENYards owed
24.3 PPR points on 38.1 expected · 1 TD on 1.5 expected
20 of 120 targets (17%) · 4 red-zone looks · 79% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Sell high: the points are ahead of the role
Jaylen Warren is the clearest sell. 82.7 points on a workload worth 55.0: 60 of 87 carries (69%), 20 of 137 targets (15%) and 2 touchdowns where the red-zone work says 0.7. None of that means he's bad. It means his next few weeks probably look a lot less like his last four, and right now someone in your league is pricing him off the last four.
3 of the 7 below are here mostly because of touchdowns. Those are the easiest sells, because the manager across from you counts the touchdowns and not the looks. The rest have been more efficient per touch than the position usually allows, which can be real, but rarely holds at this pace.
Jaylen WarrenRBPITHot per touch
82.7 PPR points on 55.0 expected · 2 TD on 0.7 expected
20 of 137 targets (15%) · 60 of 87 carries (69%) · 4 red-zone looks · 86% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
George KittleTESFTouchdown-fueled
68.6 PPR points on 43.7 expected · 4 TD on 1.9 expected
23 of 103 targets (22%) · 4 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 7
Garrett WilsonWRNYJTouchdown-fueled
72.5 PPR points on 55.2 expected · 3 TD on 0.8 expected
35 of 116 targets (30%) · 2 red-zone looks · 93% of snaps · drafted Rd 4
Davante AdamsWRLARIRHot per touch
89.5 PPR points on 72.5 expected · 4 TD on 2.7 expected
39 of 183 targets (21%) · 7 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Christian WatsonWRGBTouchdown-fueled
76.7 PPR points on 60.1 expected · 4 TD on 2.3 expected
32 of 141 targets (23%) · 6 red-zone looks · 80% of snaps · drafted Rd 6
Jameson WilliamsWRDETHot per touch
49.1 PPR points on 33.5 expected · 2 TD on 0.8 expected
20 of 149 targets (13%) · 2 red-zone looks · 92% of snaps · drafted Rd 5
Denzel BostonWRCLEHot per touch
55.1 PPR points on 43.0 expected · 2 TD on 1.2 expected
25 of 125 targets (20%) · 3 red-zone looks · 92% of snaps · drafted Rd 15
Also running ahead of their workload, and not on the list on purpose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson. All 9 went in the first three rounds. You drafted them to be the reason you win, the price already assumes big weeks, and four games of good luck doesn't give you anything extra to sell.
Before you hit send
Four games is a small sample, and this is a nudge, not a verdict. The model knows how often a player was targeted and handed the ball. It doesn't know who's healthy, who's covering him, or whether a new coordinator is still figuring out his offense. And no free feed publishes routes run, so snap share is standing in for route participation.
The way to use this: buy the names at the top of the first list from managers who are frustrated with them, and shop the names on the second to managers who think the hot start is who they are. Don't do either for a discount. If the other side won't pay, holding is fine. The whole point is that the role is the part you can count on.
Run an offer through the trade analyzer · Week 5 usage risers · The live waiver board
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Targets, carries, red-zone opportunities and snaps from Sleeper's Weeks 2 to 5 stat lines, captured once each week was final, with shares measured against each player's own team totals. Expected points price each opportunity at the league-wide rate for that position over the same weeks, so across every player at a position the gaps sum to zero. A player who missed a game his team played is left out, so every row covers the full window; a bye does not count against him. Roster share is frozen with the latest capture. ADP and injury designations are live. Fantasy points are full PPR on Sleeper's scoring.