Early-Round Busts: 2025's Highest Picks With the Worst Bust Rates

Season totals hide how a player actually got there. A back who scores 12, 14, and 16 helps you win every week; one who scores 3, 4, and 35 posts the same average but loses you two of three matchups. So instead of points, we measured consistency game by game: a bust is any week under 10 PPR points (a dud from a player you had to start), and a boom is any week of 20 or more (a difference-maker).

Here we take every player drafted inside the first six rounds of 2024 (top-72 in that year's expert consensus) and rank them by bust rate. This is the most expensive kind of miss: you spent premium draft capital expecting a weekly starter and instead had to sweat every lineup decision. Across this list the average bust rate is 0%, meaning these early picks flopped in roughly 0 of a 17-game season.

Read the two rate columns together. Most of these are steadily disappointing rather than volatile, which matters for how you treat them going forward: a boom-or-bust player is still a usable dart throw in the right matchup, while a low-boom, high-bust profile is one to fade entirely.